Rains Keep Farmers Guessing

By Kalata News

Lusaka, December – FARMERS are still guessing whether this year’s rains will be better than last season as rainfall pattern analysis by the Meteorological Department so far has northern part of Zambia receiving normal rains than the Southern part of the country.

A rainfall pattern analysis has Lusaka, Eastern, Central and Southern Half of Zambia in a normal and below normal rainfall so far whereas the northern circuit has received normal and above normal rainfall expected during the period under review.

The Meteorological Department is therefore advising farmers to consult extensively their nearest agricultural officers before making any farming decisions.

The trend seen so far is similar to the trend seen in the last farming season where the northern half of Zambia had normal to above normal rainfall while Lusaka, Eastern, part of Western, part of north-western and Southern parts of Zambia had below normal rainfall.

“It is necessary to regularly check our Daily, Weekly, and 10-day Agrometeorological Bulletins for the most up-to-date information. We will review this forecast monthly and provide updates. If you have any questions or need further assistance, please contact the Director of Meteorology at the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment,” advises Edson Nkonde, Director Meteorological Department.

LIKELY START OF THE 2024/2025 SEASON

However, the weather forecast for the 2024/25 farming season has the onset of the rainy season likely in October for some parts of Western Province, the northern regions of Luapula, and North-western provinces. In contrast, most parts of Zambia will likely experience the onset of rains in November.

However, a delayed onset is likely in the extreme north-eastern parts of the country, including Luangwa, Chirundu, Gwembe, and Sinazongwe, where the onset of the rains may not arrive until mid December.

Historical, the rainy season in Zambia is from December to March in the North and December to February in the South half of Zambia.

The wettest areas are the northern ones, namely, the North-Western Province, the Copperbelt Province, and the Northern Province, where precipitation exceeds 1,000 millimeters per year, and in some areas, it can reach 1,400 mm.

The most arid area is, in the south-west, the southern part of Barotseland, where the Zambezi River separates Zambia from Namibia and Zimbabwe: in this area, annual rainfall is around 600 mm  or even a little below.

In a rainfall forecast for the 2024/25 season, the Meteorological Department indicate that the current neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was expected to transition to a weak La Niña phase during the 2024/2025 rainfall season. This weak La Niña phenomenon, which is characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, will influence Zambia’s rainfall patterns.

According to the Met department, this condition results in normal rainfall over Zambia.

“Consequently, the 2024/2025 rainfall season is likely to exhibit the following characteristics:  Normal rainfall over most parts of Zambia, with episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding in flood-prone areas. Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over the north-eastern parts of the country.”

“A delayed onset of rains is likely in the extreme north-eastern parts of the country, including Luangwa, Chirundu, Gwembe, and Sinazongwe districts, by mid-December,” says the forecast.

The cessation of rains is likely in March 2025 for the southern half of the country and by the end of April for parts of Eastern Province, as well as the northern parts of Luapula and Northern provinces

Rainfall Forecast up to December (OND) has Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely to be achieved in North-western, Western, Southern, Lusaka, Central, and Copperbelt provinces, as well as the southern districts of Eastern, Muchinga, Northern, and Luapula provinces.

Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely in Chama, Mafinga, Isoka, Nakonde, Chinsali, Mungwi, Senga Hill, Mbala, Mpulungu, Nsama, Kaputa, Chiengi, Nchelenge, and Mporokoso districts.